The Judgment-Elicitation Process for Multicriteria Decision Making

作者:Bybee; Karen 刊名:Journal of Petroleum Technology 上传者:仵敏敏


Decision making related to oil and gas exploration and production relies on objective data analysis as well as on the subjective judgment of experts. Expert judgment often is considered to be less accurate than objective data analysis. By improving the judgment-elicitation process particularly in the case of mul-ticriteria decision making, it is possible to improve the quality of critical deci-sions. Proper use of judgment-elicita-tion techniques together with objective data analysis will lead to significantly better decisions related to oil and gas exploration and production. Introduction Uncertainty assessment in the petro-leum industry can be performed on the basis of objective information, such as using analogs or actual production data, as well as by interviewing experts. Traditionally, expert judgment has been considered to be less accurate than objective data analysis because of inher-ited biases. However, recent research shows that subjective expert judgment can be accurate as long as it is elicited properly. In other words, the experts need to be asked the proper questions in a proper order. The judgment-elici-tation process should be designed prop-erly for the particular problem. There are two types of biases: cogni-tive and motivational. Cognitive biases show up in the way we process infor-mation. In other words, they are distor-tions in the way reality is perceived. There are many forms of cognitive bias, but they can be separated into a few groups: 1. Behavioral