基于决策树的双边交易购电策略分析

作者:胡乐宜;杨立兵;宋依群;刘福斌;洪元瑞 刊名:华东电力 上传者:亓仲臣

【摘要】提出了用决策树选择交易方案的思路,制定了一个逻辑清晰的决策过程,用算例解释分析了此方法的应用,并进行了灵敏度分析。算例证明,购电交易的单级决策与多级决策问题都可用决策树法解决,靠前的决策因素更重要,各方案价格差的大小对决策结果有影响。

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第 40 卷 第 10 期 2012 年 10 月 Vol. 40 No. 10 Oct. 2012 基于决策树的双边交易购电策略分析 胡乐宜1,杨立兵2,宋依群1,刘福斌2,洪元瑞2 ( 1. 上海交通大学 电气工程系,上海 200240;2. 华东电网有限公司,上海 200002) 摘 要: 提出了用决策树选择交易方案的思路,制定了一个逻辑清晰的决策过程,用算例解释分析了此方法的应用,并进行了灵敏度分析。算例证明,购电交易的单级决策与多级决策问题都可用决策树法解决,靠前的决策因素更重要,各方案价格差的大小对决策结果有影响。 关键词: 电力市场; 省间双边交易; 决策因素; 逻辑决策; 决策树作者简介: 胡乐宜( 1988-) ,女,硕士研究生,研究方向为电力市场。 中图分类号: TM-9; F407. 61 文献标志码: A 文章编号:1001-9529( 2012) 10-1661-05 Energy Procurement Strategy via Bilateral Contracts Based on Decision Tree HU Le-yi1,YANG Li-bing2,SONG Yi-qun1,LIU Fu-bin2,HONG Yuan-rui2 ( 1. Department of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,China; 2. East China Grid Co. ,Ltd. ,Shanghai 200002,China) Abstract: In regional electricity markets,when an electric power company purchases electricity through bilateral transactions among provinces,it is necessary to select one proper trading scheme from the option( s) the seller pro-vides. This selection should be based on the comprehensive consideration of all the interdependent decision factors such as economic benefit,reliability,energy conservation policy and satisfaction of other entities in the electricity markets. In this paper,the idea of selecting a trading scheme based on decision tree is proposed for the first time,and a logical decision process is formulated. Then some numerical examples are illustrated to analyze the method ap-plication,and a set of sensitivity analysis is performed as well. It is proved that both single level decision probl

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